Covid-19 - Precursor to the Cognitive War

I've posted and written much about the need to build capacity, capability and expertise in the #CognitiveDomain. We have faced unexpected challenges before. The current Chinese Flu/Covid pandemic is yet another we were found unprepared. More so, we were caught unprepared and continue in our perpetually reactive mode in responding to the onslaught of Chinese, Russian, Iranian and others propaganda. We spend two decades playing whack a mole in the desert, when the real war was cognitive, not kinetic. We celebrated our cold war success, while the Russians played our media and "useful idiots" who undertook a coup attempt against a president - using a mere pittance of investment to feed disinformation in to the Steele Dossier. No, the Russian trolls did not alter the election outcome, they had little impact. But yes, the Russians were very successful in that they gained the help of a set of useful idiots who peddled the Russian propaganda, who then abused the FISA process - and disrupted our trust in our national security apparatus and disrupted our nation for three years. Chump change.

Yet we in the US have spent billions of dollars on kinetic capabilities. And we continued to pat ourselves on our back as we sat on our laurels post the fall of the Soviet Union but China, Russia and others advanced their capabilities - yes kinetic, but the real advance occurred in the cognitive domain. China deployed and employed a whole of nation Cognitive War against the US and others - in which it successfully duped, stole, lied and cheated its way to gain billions.

Despite many warnings, we remain resting on our laurels, content to look at our big kinetic investments, beat our chest, and proclaim we are moving back to great power competition.

Really? ISIS wasn't a great power, neither were the Taliban. Neither is Iran, nor China, nor Russia. They are however, more adept, successful and destructive operating in the cognitive domain.

We are overmatched, remain overmatched and remain inept in our ability to counter the whole of nation strategies employed by China across multiple front, creating multiple dilemmas.

Yet, when I raise the gaps, warning flags, and issues to the most senior IC, DoD, Federal official the need to focus on this, I hear silence. A deafening silence. Yet, there are many in those institutions that have been screaming for years - like I - that we must move beyond our fixation with kinetic solutions only.

We must stop reacting – which is playing perpetual defense, a truly losing proposition. We must begin driving “proactive” influence operations – in simple terms, driving others to react to us. We can do this in the open, against regimes, specific individuals or companies or we can do it in the darkness. Both approaches are necessary. It is not only critical to eliminating the threat, it is critical to the long-term survival of our Republic and enabling a decisive advantage in the kinetic domain

First thing, we must understand that we’ve been in a Cognitive War for the last several decades. It’s just that we took our eyes off this perpetual competition in the cognitive domain post the fall of the Soviet Union, only our adversaries wisely used our celebration of the “peace” dividend to extend and grow their capabilities – both cognitive and kinetic. Their success is significant – as they’ve stolen trillions of dollars in intellectual property, military research and development (including design information for some of our prized weapon systems), advanced commercial technologies and research while we also concurrently realigned key aspects of our supply chain from protected shores – moving them into the heart of our adversary’s lair. Our adversaries built a comprehensive and multi-faceted strategy and execute to date a very successful cognitive war.

"Our biggest challenge, is that we are in the midst of a cognitive war that will last a millennia or longer, and our focus remains near solely on kinetic." Edward L Haugland, February 2019

As I close out this article, realize that the pandemic - however concerning it is - is nothing compared to what we face in the Cognitive War. In the pandemic, we sustain our food supplies, our fuel, and our ability to move. But we did see the impact on our military's ability to mobilize, deploy, and respond - as our overall federal government was put mostly on telework. Imagine, a targeted biological attack - personalized to key leadership in concert with a cyber-attack on just one major region of our country. These actions are possible from lone wolf, to state sponsored to state adversary. Imagine Covid without the ability to get food, water or electricity. It is coming - unless we move from a perpetual reactive to proactive posture.

Persistent Competition and Attack – The Cognitive War

The United States is faced with a complex challenge. We are under persistent attack from our adversaries in the information environment, for which we remain largely unprepared to respond other than with short-term tactical efforts. We lack a whole of nation approach, strategy and limited means to conduct a sustained and comprehensive strategy of proactive influence measures against one, let alone multiple, adversary. But, it’s possible to change that dynamic.

For us to compete in the cognitive war, we must change our operating paradigm, we must overcome four key problems:

• We must move from a predominately reactive to proactive posture. We must fight further "upstream" in the information space prior to kinetic action and potentially preventing kinetic action.

• Define the real problem. Technology is not the problem, it’s defining the problem. Technology is agnostic with respect to the problem, it an enabler not nirvana, it should not be chased, it should be applied.

• Move from a kinetic to cognitive focus. We are in the midst of a cognitive war, and our focus remains near solely on kinetics. We must realize and act to develop a cohesive strategy, comprehensive implementation plan, and capacity to compete and enable sustained strategic and proactive influence operations.

• Change, or be changed. Our biggest hurdles are cultural and structural, as we remain stuck producing from an industrial age factory floor. We must retool or overhaul of significant portions of our current factory floor if we are to produce effective options to compete in the information age.

It is time for a national call to action. Regardless of you ideology or politics, we owe every president more options that are on the table. And we owe it to the American people to begin driving "others" to react to us.

We can either live the future we define, via proactive influence operations in the Cognitive Domain. Or, we can live in our cycle of reaction, and spiral downward slowly - by allowing others to continue to drive us to react. What future do you wish for our country?

We must move from operating as “Titanium Cylinders of Sub-Excellence” to a fully integrated enterprise. The Covid-19 pandemic gives us a taste of our potential future battlefield, and the whole of nation response we are realizing is the right path. We must expand on the current crises response, build a parallel effort in the cognitive domain, or face a concerning future.

© 2020, All Rights Reserved, Edward L Haugland LLC